Black Friday 2026: which discount can you afford?
Black Friday 2026 is on November 27, 2026, Cyber Monday on November 30, 2026. Whether a discount pays off depends above all on your margin: at 30 % margin, 20 % off needs × 2.9 the orders, at 50 % margin only × 1.6. Above the maximum discount every order loses money – no matter how many you sell.
Enter your product and discount – the discount calculator shows how many more orders you need and your maximum discount.
Open the discount calculatorTable: how many times the orders you need
Same €49.90 product (incl. 19 % VAT, shipping €4.90, €5.00 ads, 8 % returns), only the purchase price differs so that the margin before the discount is 20–50 %. Each cell: orders needed with the discount to earn the same contribution as without it.
| Margin before | 10% off | 20% off | 30% off | 40% off | 50% off | Max. discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | × 1.9 | × 38.7 | loss | loss | loss | 21% |
| 30% | × 1.5 | × 2.9 | × 38.7 | loss | loss | 31% |
| 40% | × 1.3 | × 1.9 | × 3.7 | × 38.7 | loss | 41% |
| 50% | × 1.2 | × 1.6 | × 2.4 | × 4.5 | × 38.7 | 51% |
How to read the table
“× 2.0” means twice your normal orders just to earn the same – the discount only pays off if you sell even more. “loss” means the discounted price no longer covers the costs of an order: more sales only increase the loss.
The lower your margin, the faster a discount eats it: at 20% margin, 20% off already needs × 38.7 the orders. At 50% margin there is room, but 30% off still needs × 2.4 the orders – compare that with how much your sales really rose in last year’s sale week.
Sale-week advertising changes the answer
In the Black Friday week competition for ads is high, so the ad cost per order often rises. With 30% off, the same product needs × 9.0 the orders at €5.00 ads per order – and loses money on every order at €10.00. Calculate with the ad cost you expect in that week, not your average.
Alternatives to a store-wide discount
- Discount only the products with a high margin – the maximum-discount column tells you where the limit is.
- Bundles: a discount on the second item keeps the shipping and ad cost per order the same while the order value rises.
- A gift with a low purchase price instead of a percentage.
- Shorter sales (Black Friday to Cyber Monday) instead of a whole “Black Week” at the deepest discount.
Worked examples: 30% off a €49.90 product in the sale week
The discount calculator's example product (33% margin before the discount), 100 orders in a normal month, ad cost doubled in the sale week.
- Contribution per order without discount
- €12.68
- With 30% off, normal ads
- €1.41
- Orders needed instead of 100
- 902
- With 30% off and €10.00 ads
- -€3.59
- Orders needed instead of 100 (sale week)
- every order loses money
Check the discount with sale-week ad costs before you announce it – and only discount products whose margin can carry it.